Economist at UNLV voicing apprehensions about the future of gaming and tourism in Las Vegas
Decline in Las Vegas Tourism and Casino Revenues in 2025: Cautious Optimism for 2026
Las Vegas, known for its vibrant tourism and gaming industry, has experienced a notable downturn in 2025 due to economic uncertainty and declines in international travel. However, analysts and industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for 2026, with major upcoming events and tax incentives expected to drive a rebound.
In the first half of 2025, Las Vegas welcomed 3.4 million visitors, marking a 6.5% year-over-year decline. Hotel occupancy dropped significantly, with a 15% decline in June and a 17% decline in early July, the steepest decline among major U.S. tourism markets. International travel fell about 13.2% in June, with Canadian visitation particularly affected by U.S. tariffs, stricter visa policies, and increased airport scrutiny.
The decline in tourism has also impacted commercial casinos. MGM Resorts reported a 4% year-over-year revenue decrease in Las Vegas for Q2 2025, attributed partly to renovations and lower table game hold at MGM Grand. Despite this, gambling revenue was slightly higher than the previous year in June 2025.
Factors contributing to the decline in tourism include inflation, political unrest, and what visitors perceive as expensive pricing or “gouging” on resort fees and add-ons. U.S. tariffs and immigration policies have also strained international arrivals, reducing inbound tourism.
Analysts and industry leaders foresee a rebound driven by major global events hosted in Las Vegas, including the Formula 1 Grand Prix and the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which may encourage delayed trips. Convention bookings for late 2025 and into 2026 look strong, and sports tourism is expected to help revive growth.
Nevada’s recently approved tax relief on tips and senior deductions could boost local spending and benefit casinos and taverns in 2026, supporting economic recovery. Major resorts are also moving toward more upscale accommodations, potentially capturing higher-end visitor segments who are less price-sensitive.
Despite the challenges, there are positive signs. Visitors are spending more when they're in Las Vegas. In 2024, over five million international visitors accounted for 12% of Las Vegas tourism, with Canadians making up 28.3%, the largest share. The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) reported that the number of heads are down, but the spending per head is up.
In conclusion, while economic uncertainty and decreased international travel have pressured Las Vegas tourism and casino revenues through 2025, the outlook for 2026 is more favorable owing to scheduled international events, convention demand, sports tourism, and supportive tax policy changes. However, the recovery depends significantly on restoring international visitor confidence and managing ongoing cost concerns for travelers.
The national economy faces a potential slowdown and uncertainty in the next six to 18 months over tariffs and the business climate, according to the CBER report. The upcoming Hard Rock Hotel, set to add over 600 rooms to the Strip, and new attractions like the Hall of Excellence and F1-themed experiences may help broaden the city's appeal. Brightline West's high-speed rail line, expected to open in 2028, will improve access from southern California. Canadian tourism contributed $6.2 billion in total economic output and supported over 43,000 jobs in southern Nevada last year.
[1] Stephen Miller and the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) report
[2] Las Vegas Review-Journal
[3] Las Vegas Sun
[4] MGM Resorts Q2 2025 earnings report
[5] Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) report
- The decline in Las Vegas tourism and casino revenues in 2025 has raised concerns about the gaming industry's casino-culture, with responsible-gambling advocates urging more protection for vulnerable gamblers within casino-and-gambling establishments.
- As the Las Vegas tourism sector prepares for a resurgence in 2026, the spotlight is on influential casino-personalties like Steve Wynn and Sheldon Adelson, who have been at the forefront of casino-games innovation and will play a significant role in shaping gambling-trends in the revival phase.
- While the economic downturn hit lotteries in Nevada as well, a steady demand has been observed among visitors for lottery games such as Powerball and Mega Millions at various casinos throughout Las Vegas, pointing towards an enduring appeal of these games within the casino culture.
- Looking forward to the future of tourism and casinos in Las Vegas, regional development plans include the expansion of non-gaming attractions and experiences, such as arts, entertainment, and eco-tourism initiatives, with the aim of diversifying the city's offerings beyond casino-games and appealing to a broader audience.
